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Birth rates declining, dangerous for U.S.

Published: Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Updated: Tuesday, December 1, 2009 09:12

Some think a growing population serves to exacerbate all of the systemic problems of our world. Beth Mendenhall has even written a column on the subject. In fact, such a thing is only a bad dream and not the truth.

Scarcity is indeed a problem. In fact, in terms of economics, it is the problem. People are forced to economize in the face of scarcity. We have limited resources to fill unlimited ends. Mendenhall acts as if "overpopulation" is some new problem that will be the downfall of the human race and the planet. In fact, this is not a new "problem."

Such a problem was dreamt up by Thomas Malthus in the late 1700s. He did some rough calculations and came to the conclusion that the world would run out of food by the end of the 1800s. To remedy this problem, he advocated the killing of elderly people and placing limits on how many children people could have. Mendenhall, thankfully, does not advocate a government control of birth rate.

One might ask, though, how could the government control birth rates? When I get married, I certainly don't want anyone telling me and my wife how many children we can have. But I digress. Let's assume Malthus was right with his calculations and the world would have run out of food.

What happened in the 1800s that allowed the veritable explosion in population growth during and after that period? The Industrial Revolution. The new technologies in all areas of life that developed out of that era allowed the limited resources of the earth to be spread over more and more people. These technologies allowed for a healthier population, as well, because people could consume higher-quality food and could live in cleaner environments.

Mendenhall decries capitalism as one of the evils destroying our earth. I submit that, as capitalism is the driving force behind new technology, it actually saves humanity. As entrepreneurs work to become profitable, their inventions make our entire world better.

Let's assume all this analysis is wrong and a growing population will really cause all of the horrible things Mendenhall thinks it will. Is "overpopulation" really on the horizon? In fact, no. According to the United Nations Population Division, the worldwide birthrate will be less than replacement by 2050.

This means the worldwide population will begin to decline. It is already far below replacement in many European countries. The native populations of the entire European Union will eventually die off, as the average birth rate is about 1.5 children per woman (far below the replacement rate, which is 2.1). In the U.S., we already have the problem of too many elderly people and not enough youth. This is one of the main causes of the imminent failure of Social Security. There will simply be too many people who cannot work for the people who can work to take care of. How will we deal with this problem after 2050 when the entire world begins to experience this?

Let's take another look at the United States. Population growth has leveled off in the U.S. partly through a natural phenomenon. As a country becomes more developed, there is an increased need for an educated populace. This means that, more and more, people put off raising a family in favor of continued education. Birth rates slowly decline as a result.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, this has been happening in the U.S. for quite some time. In the last 30 years, the number of U.S. women who reached the end of their childbearing years without bearing a child went from 10 percent to 20 percent.

There is no need for Malthusian population control, either at the whim of the government or a self-hating ideology.

-Levi Russell is a graduate student in economics. Please send comments to opinion@spub.ksu.edu.

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6 comments

Anonymous
Fri Feb 26 2010 17:33
In China, the "one child per couple" is not a suggestion. Because I can't put links in the comment section, please search for "forced abortion china" and at least read the NPR article about it. From the article on April 23, 2007:

During the past week, dozens of women in southwest China have been forced to have abortions even as late as nine months into the pregnancy, according to evidence uncovered by NPR.

China's strict family planning laws permit urban married couples to have only one child each, but in some of the recent cases — in Guangxi Province — women say they were forced to abort what would have been their first child because they were unmarried. The forced abortions are all the more shocking because family planning laws have generally been relaxed in China, with many families having two children.

Liang Yage and his wife Wei Linrong had one child and believed that — like many other couples — they could pay a fine and keep their second baby. Wei was 7 months pregnant when 10 family planning officials visited her at home on April 16.

Liang describes how they told her that she would have to have an abortion, "You don't have any more room for maneuver," he says they told her. "If you don't go [to the hospital], we'll carry you." The couple was then driven to Youjiang district maternity hospital in Baise city.

"I was scared," Wei told NPR. "The hospital was full of women who'd been brought in forcibly. There wasn't a single spare bed. The family planning people said forced abortions and forced sterilizations were both being carried out. We saw women being pulled in one by one."

The couple was given a consent agreement to sign. When Liang refused, family planning officials signed it for him. He and his wife are devout Christians — he is a pastor — and they don't agree with abortion.

The officials gave Wei three injections in the lower abdomen. Contractions started the next afternoon, and continued for almost 16 hours. Her child was stillborn.

"I asked the doctor if it was a boy or girl," Wei said. "The doctor said it was a boy. My friends who were beside me said the baby's body was completely black. I felt desolate, so I didn't look up to see the baby."

Medical sources say fetuses aborted in this manner would have been dead for some time, so the tissue is necrotic and thus dark in color.

"The nurses dealt with the body like it was rubbish," Wei said. "They wrapped it up in a black plastic bag and threw it in the trash."

Author
Thu Dec 3 2009 02:38
Immigration from one country to another simply presents the same problem of decreasing population to the country from whence they came.

The market (i.e. voluntary associations between people free to act within the bounds of natural law) provides the balance. People whose costs/benefits are internalized (i.e. not socialized via the state) will make the most efficient/socially optimal decisions. For more on selfishness and the profit motive as benefactors to society, look up Milton Friedman on YouTube.

I did not make the title.

Your name
Wed Dec 2 2009 11:23
Interesting article, but why did you say declining birth rates are dangerous in the title? Isn't a decline in birth rates somewhat offset by immigration? You say that to combat the costs of social security we need more children in order to close the gap between the number of young and old people. Wouldn't it be best, by the same logic, to just increase the number of people allowed to immigrate to the United States?
Your name
Tue Dec 1 2009 17:25
Well done, Bravo! You will have liberal heads exploding with this one. Please, don't confuse them with the facts. I wonder when the Main Sewer Media will deign to report on Climategate.
MikeJ81
Tue Dec 1 2009 15:08
Well said!
Your name
Tue Dec 1 2009 14:43
Very well written! I don't get into economics much but I enjoyed reading this article.

Humans are trying to control the reproduction of humans. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the stupidity of that statement. It's sad the government is actually taking over something only God should have control over. The government is raising the public to be selfish. I'd be interesting to know whether the population growth would really change much even if government dropped their laws on limiting the number of offspring.

This is going into another topic but first off, if the people were truly open to life they wouldn't accept living under such a government. Not that everyone can just leave their family or afford to pack up and move but then again can we put a price on the openness to new life? Yes of course, its about $500 and even more if the government feels like it, that is if your lucky and they don't decided to beat you up throughout your life instead, or cut your salary and benefits in half, or tear down your house.

You can get charged several hundred to thousands of dollars for going over the child limit. So say you live in China and your on the fence about it having another child that would be over your limit, check for sure if you'd only get a "fine" as a penalty, because heck you might as well have the child since the fine would be about the same or even more as what you would pay to get an abortion or choose to get your tubes tied if your not pregnant yet. If they threaten to beat you up instead, well God be with you and the angels and saints, because you've just put you martyr hat on.

Their government is stripping them from having a say in the matter about what should be one the most important thing in our lives. We marry to bring new life into the world and we can't even do that. They are taking away the many but most important things women were created for.

Abortion I believe is murder, so if an extra child is born they don't chop off his/her head because heaven forbid they kill the child once it's out of the womb, because that would for sure be murder. No, they just put the family through what we call hell on earth. Well shoot, all the peace and justice that comes out of that is definiantly worth the life a child and keeping the poplulation down.

The overwhelming use of contraception in those countries is another topic, but I do want to make the point that we say we're glad we don't have government like that, that puts laws on the amount of children we can have but save for those who are open to life, many Americans who say that are making the same choices that government is and for the same reason, to save themselves from the "burden". And there is an outstanding amount of Americans using contraceptives. If our government changed it's laws like theirs we probably wouldn't see much difference in our population rate, we are doing a good job of keeping it down ourselves.

Furthermore a good percentage of those who use contraceptives aren't married. Since we are in such an economic crisis, Hello, has anyone ever thought about the teaching on sexual purity and absitence? The world is all about cheap, so why isn't the cheapest solution being put into practice? Because temporal satisfaction, lust and the desires of our own heart overrides the consequences we have to face. But wait, we don't even have to deal with those consequences anymore because we've already provided a way out of dealing with them. Thank God huh.

The world is just living off impluse as our values and commitments are becoming more and more distorted.

Our government may not put a limit on the number of children we can have but they ARE decieving us and we are stripping away a whole generation of children and are taking away their rights. I don't think our government is much worse than Eurpopean countries as far as that goes. The difference is we don't have to suffer the consequences of our actions (of choosing to have antoher kid and thus get beat up for it.) With millions over, there has to be a few who choose to stand up for their rights. If you've read at all about everything the government puts them through...talk about taking up your cross.

Obviously with all these random points I made, I'm sure I will on toes and more likely tick people off, for it is hard to follow wtih the great grammar and sentence structure and lack of time/desire to edit it and also it all stemmed from my personal beliefs but this is really just directed at the government.....who will never read it, but whatever! I'm done venting now haha. Peace!







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